Central and Eastern European transition experiences and the Arab Spring
My article posted on the Euro Middle East Forum.
References:
The goal of this short paper is
to provide some background information for the first debate of the Euro Middle
East Forum organised in 2013 on the occasion of the second anniversary of the
uprisings that shook the Middle East in the early part of 2011. This first
conference will focus on the lessons learnt from the Central and Eastern
European transition experience from dictatorship to democracy, a long process
that took almost 20 years, which could be applicable to the Arab countries in
the current context. The topics of the second and third debates will be
announced later on.
EU10 transition
experience
In the last two decades, Central
and Eastern European countries have experienced fundamental changes in their
political and economic regimes as a consequence of the fall of the former
Soviet block. These changes involved fundamental transformations of virtually
every aspect of their political, economic and social life.
The fall of the communist system entailed
challenges of similar kinds for all these countries: achieving a power deal between existing political forces; tackling
economic problems in the transition period; establishing the rule of law;
reforming the police, the judiciary and the administration; supporting the
development of political parties and of civil society organisations; promoting
a free and independent media; etc.
Every country, however, took its
own path in addressing them[1].
This was due, on the one hand, to the internal differences in their respective
political regimes, economic systems and social settings, and, on the other
hand, to the diverse relationship with the hegemonic power and the Soviet
Communist Party. The historical, social, political and economic diversity of
Eastern and Central European countries at the beginning of their transition,
together with their respective capacity for reforms, have deeply influenced the
way and the extent of this transition process.
The 10 Eastern European Member
States that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 possess a wealth of knowledge in
managing these long, complex processes. The experiences of these countries
during their transition – including their expertise in the use of foreign assistance
in support of such a difficult process – are source of inspiration and present
a great utility for other countries and regions benefiting from the EU’s
assistance and cooperation programmes.
The Arab Spring and the transition
On the surface, there appear to
be strong similarities between the ongoing developments in the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) and the events that unfolded in Central and Eastern Europe in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
However, there are at least three reasons to believe that the continuing
political transitions in the Arab world are likely to be considerably more
difficult than those experienced by the countries of the former Eastern Bloc
two decades ago[2].
These reasons are:
- The absence of external positive incentives: Many Central and Eastern European countries reformed with their eyes fixed on European Union membership. The hardships associated with difficult political transitions are evidently easier to tolerate with the promise of an ultimate reward. Unfortunately, no such incentives are currently available to countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Whether they could be created, and what form they would take, remains an important question.
- Weak civil society organizations: The collapse of socialism in Europe was also the product of determined civil society efforts, and these movements emerged as credible actors and leaders in the new and reformed system. The agent of change in the MENA region, while influenced by civil society activism, was a more spontaneous popular outburst. Civil society in much of the region remains weak, fragmented, and divided between tainted organizations closely identified with the fallen regimes and new, often ephemeral ones. A proactive drive towards engagement led by Western civil society organizations, on a peer-to-peer basis, may help energize their MENA counterparts.
- A less conducive geopolitical climate: The collapse of the Soviet Union created, at least for some time, a unipolar international order. The transatlantic alliance was able to forcefully step in as an enabler and facilitator of the Central and Eastern Europe’s transition. Today, the external influence is far more diversified. Beyond the Western partners, players such as Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia line up to influence the so-called Arab Spring for their own purposes. The path towards a smooth transition, supported by a transatlantic alliance working in the same direction, as it was the case in Central and Eastern Europe in the nineties, appears much less straightforward.
Despite these differences, there
is still hope. There is a will for reform among emerging new political powers, and
a process that has started, how difficult it is, in three countries of the Arab
spring. These countries are those which experienced a revolution, or uprising,
and which have initiated a transition process, combined with a significant
political regime change and the absence of major armed conflict. Those
countries are, at this stage, Tunisia,
Libya and Egypt. It is
difficult to summarise, in a few lines, two years of events and somewhat
chaotic developments, but we have tried to identify here after the main
challenges that those three countries have faced over that period in their
transformation.
Tunisia
By any measure, Tunisia has probably
the best chance among the Arab Spring countries to transition to democracy but
the necessary key issues are identified as follows.
The nature of the political
regime and government (presidential, parliamentary etc. ) and the electoral law
itself are still under discussion. It is an ongoing process, but, up to now,
the National Constituent Assembly failed to meet its promise and to bring about
real accomplishments on these matters. For these reasons, consensual legitimacy
necessitates a broader agreement over the key issues within the road map
of the transitional stage.
The reform of the Ministry of
Interior needs to be another priority, including vetting the potential new
managers in order to clean the internal security sector. The violence of the police
against peaceful demonstrators has been seen at several occasions until
recently. On the other side, some extremist religious groups have brought
violence against secular groups, in a climate of relative impunity. Ensuring
the independence of the judiciary and transitional justice is another
issue. There is a need to continue the efforts on prosecutions.
The language that defines women’s
rights, and protections of free speech and religion, including press freedom
needs to be better included in the laws and in the constitution. Amnesty
International released a report in October saying that the draft constitution,
“fails to fully uphold freedom of expression as it includes provisions
criminalizing attacks against religion and ‘sacred values.’”
Last but not least, the economic
situation is a big concern. GDP contracted by an estimated 1.5 percent and
unemployment jumped to over 18 percent in 2011, amid rising twin fiscal and
current account deficits. The outlook for the economy hinges on the political
transition and the external environment. Despite earlier reforms, a level
playing field has not been established in many sectors, and steps to improve
the business environment have not yet been taken.
Libya
Just over a year ago, the world watched as Muammar Gaddafi, the Libyan
dictator of 42 years, was captured and killed brutally. With his death, a
seven-month NATO intervention came to an end and a door opened to a better
future for the Libyan people. Libya had considerable advantages compared with
its neighbours. It was wealthy, the region was relatively stable, and the rebel
victory was uncontested.
A notable achievement in the new Libya is the successful election of
the General National Congress where Libyans were allowed to choose their
representatives. The Congress’ work has been plagued by party politics
struggles as well as regional struggles, but so far it has proved its
commitment to the rule of law and constitutional values.
The July 2012 election was successful. But there has been little
progress in other key areas. Weak state institutions, quasi absence of
political parties and civil society institutions, and lack of media outlets
are probably the biggest obstacle towards a democratic system. A major task,
now that the new government has been formed, is to intensify consultations and
reach decisions regarding the constitutional process, starting with the
establishment of a Constitutional Commission. The process will not be easy and
will include many political and regional obstacles, but the key for Libya’s success
in this process will depend on its inclusiveness, transparency and fairness.
Security remains a major concern: there is a continuous
abundance of weapons on the streets and the diverse armed “brigades” in the
country with unclear lines of command and control. Interim Prime Minister Ali
Zeidan vowed to improve the security situation in the country and appointed two
very experienced and skilled individuals without any political affiliations to
fill the posts of Ministers of Interior and Defence. However, the battles
between some militias still lead to unacceptable human right abuses. It remains
also just as urgent for the Libyan authorities to fully activate the judiciary
so that perpetrators are held to account and rule of law upheld.
Finally, despite the wealth of the country, unemployment is very high
among the young population, thousands of graduates are currently struggling to
find decent jobs. Libya's
energy resources have provided a relatively high standard of living—per-capita
income of just over $12,000 in 2010—but it can even more enjoy the promise of a
bright future and financial grounds for building a new state. Successful
transition in Libya
will ultimately require the growth of private enterprise outside the
hydrocarbon industry.
Egypt
Egypt, due to its huge population, its situation at the crossroads of
the East and the West and its importance in the region was the most promising
Arab Spring country but the best we can say about the process so far is that it
has been painful.
In February 2011, Hosni Mubarak stepped down, leaving the way for an
interim military government which has lead to many human right abuses. The
first democratic election gave a huge Islamist majority in the Parliament, but
its result was annulled by a court in June. Shortly after, Mohammed Mursi of
the Muslim Brotherhood was chosen as the first freely elected President in the
history of Egypt.
During the summer, the president dismissed the leaders of the Supreme Council
of the Armed Forces and replaced them with more consensual elements from the
Army. Since then, the battle has been raging with the judiciary, mostly
appointed during the Mubarak regime, although the clash over legality also
occurred with reformist judges, formerly opposed to Mubarak. The constitution was
written by an assembly, from which most of the secular and liberal members
resigned, giving it a highly divisive character. The ratification of the
constitution infuriated secular, Christian and women's groups and the liberal
opposition. They say the constitution does not provide sufficient guarantees
for freedom of expression and women's rights. Other institutions like the trade
unions and the media are under threat of what has been called a
“brotherhoodization” of the State. Dominant party overreach, concentration
of power, a fragmented opposition remain probably the most important
challenges.
On another note, the police and security establishments must be
transformed into effective, accountable, and politically neutral
law-enforcement bodies that deliver human security and protect human rights.
Downsizing the security services to a number consonant with its professional
mission is vital. Basically, the judiciary power, inherited from the
dictatorship, needs to be reformed, but with mechanisms that keep it
independent from the legislative and the executive powers.
One of the biggest concerns in Egypt, if not the most important,
is the economic situation which has been declining since January 2011.
The bureaucracy, coupled with a huge corruption system, makes economic and
social reform a very difficult challenge that could eventually lead to the
complete failure of the revolution. On the same note, arranging the
disengagement of Egypt’s
military from government and the economy is yet another challenge that will
keep any civilian government busy for at least the next decade.
Shared challenges
Beyond finding national
compromises to achieve necessary power deals making the transition sustainable,
the institutional reform as regard to internal security, judiciary and
transitional justice is common to the three countries as well as economic
progress and fight against unemployment.
The goal of the presentation and
the debate will be to identify in the following topics, which elements are
important and could be a source of inspiration in the Arab transitions
contexts.
Achieving a power deal. Could
the Round Table talks and agreements in Poland, Hungary serve as a model to
achieve a power deal?
Tackling economic problems in
a transition period. What is common between a post-communist economy and a
deeply bureaucratic and corrupted system and how to overcome it ?
Internal security and rule of
law. What is the role of the police and the army? how to reform such
powerful institutions without turning them against the democratic transition ?
Reform of the judiciary. Guarantees
for the independence of the judiciary, separation of powers; transitional
justice between desire for revenge and necessity of moving forward.
Promoting healthy and
diversified political parties. One of the major pillars in a democracy.
Support to the development of
civil society organisations.
Promotion of a free and
independent media.
Haifa Zaiter. A Year After Tunisia's
Elections, Cracks Appear in Ruling Troika. Translated from As-Safir (Lebanon). http://www.al-monitor.com
25/10/2012.
Isobel Coleman, Tunisia’s Transition Continues, CFR
blogs, 23 October 2012.
Special
Rapporteur Pablo de Greiff, Human rights must be at centre of Tunisia’s
transitional justice efforts – UN expert, UN News Center, 16 November 2012.
EBRD, Tunisia Country
Assessment 2012
Libya: One Year
On, Transition Has Progressed but Challenges Remain - UN Envoy, UN News
Services, 8 November 2012.
Mohamed
Eljarh, Lessons from Libya:
Successes, Failures and Challenges, Middle East
Online, 15 November 2012.
Libya’s
transition: ‘what to expect when you’re electing’, Democracy Digest (National
Endowement for Democracy, US), 5 November 2012.
Moussa
Grifa, The Libyan Revolution : Establishing a New Political System and The
Transition to Statehood, Arab Reform Initiative, September 2012.
Dan Brumberg
and Hesham Sallam, The Politics of Security Sector Reform in Egypt, United
States Institute of Peace, October 2012.
Thomas
Carothers, Nathan J. Brown, The Real Danger for Egyptian Democracy, Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, NOVEMBER 12, 2012
Chibli
Mallat, Reading the Draft Constitution of Egypt: Setbacks in substance,
process, and legitimacy, Ahram Online, 2 December 2012
Dan Murphy, Egypt's
political turmoil dimming chances of democratic transition, Christian Science
Monitor, 28 November 2012
[1] European Transition Compendium:
Online Database
[2] Hassan Mneimneh, Why Democratic
Transitions in the Arab World Will Be Harder than in Post-Communist Europe,
German Marshall Fund of the United
States. http://blog.gmfus.org 25/10/2012.
