Egypt: How to support the democratic transition after the referendum?


The referendum on the constitutional amendments, which took place on 19 March in Egypt, has not yet yielded all its conclusions, but there are some intangible facts. The approval of the amendments has been massive (77%), but it is significantly below the previous similar exercises observed in the last 50 years. Also, the participation rate has been up to four times the rate of the previous parliamentary elections and holds a gross participation record without precedent, all of which in a relatively ordered and peaceful manner. Content wise, rather than focusing on the results only, democrats of both camps should now look into the future. There are at least three challenges to be addressed in this context: the divisions within the camp that lead the revolution started on the 25th of January, the difference of perceptions and interests between the major cities and the rural areas, and how to achieve a successful transition.

First, as a young activist posted on his blog, the people who initiated the revolution, who shared the same objectives and goals until the dismissal of Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik and the blow on the state security services, appeared to be divided for the first time. The momentum is clear for a civil dialogue, the objective of which would be to build a shared vision and to establish a strategy for implementing this vision. In order to be successful, this dialogue should be broadly inclusive of key actors of the Egyptian society and owned by the Egyptian stakeholders. Such a dialogue process would deliver two types of functions. On one hand, dealing with (immediate) critical events, addressing the challenges/problems of the times and promoting long-term change.  On the other hand, it would have as function to promoting the dialogue as a philosophy and modus operandi, as a strategic discussion. It would be the seed for a permanent dialogue between the participants to the platform in the future.

Secondly, the electoral corpse, especially (but of course, not only) in rural areas, voted for the sake of economic security, the return of stability and normality. It is often said that democratic revolutions are initiated in the capital cities, but slowed down, if not missed, in the rural areas. With an urban population rate barely over 40%, this is particularly true for Egypt. There is a need for a grass root work by the actors of change, the goal of which would be to translate sometimes complex messages into more simple ones. A network of local organisations based out of Cairo have started some years ago a shift from pure development work to more rights based approaches, aiming at forging a culture of peaceful and inclusive debates at the localities level. They need to be supported.

Third, a part of the people voted for the return of the military forces to their barracks and for the sake of the democratic transition from a military regime to a civilian regime for maybe the first time since the 1952 revolution. This leads us to the question about how European democracy promoters could support this process. Member States are still oscillating between varied policy options and narrow interests continue to be a decisive factor hampering the achievement of a broader political consensus on how Europe should position itself vis-à-vis political changes in Northern Africa and the Arab World. Nevertheless, there is a space for the European Union, its member states and its civil society, to share their democratic transition experiences.

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